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Prediction for CME (2024-02-27T11:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-27T11:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29390/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the S in all coronagraphs. Reanalysis of this CME from the initial entry finds the source to be front-sided, sourced at a filament centered around S38E02 (spanning approximatley S48W14 to S32E10) at 2024-02-27T08:01Z when it began to lift off best seen in SDO AIA 304. The filament fades moreso than it is observed leaving the disk, but it is the best candidate source and aligned well with coronagraph analysis between SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO COR2A.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-02T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29399/1
Model Inputs:
2024-02-27T11:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=8.0, Lat.=-44.0, Speed=430.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2024-02-27T19:14Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-03-02T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-03-02T04:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240227_191400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 63.13 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-02-28T16:52Z

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